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Old 23-10-2004, 23:04   #1
Meisel
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Default Database - wolf blood percetage, how is it calculated?

I had a coversation whith someone ho said that you never can calculate how much wolfblood a wolfdog has.
Is this treu?
If so,one what are the percentages based on on wolfdog.org?
If there is a dificult calculation to determent this,please sent me an email whith this calculation,so i can sent this to that person.
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Old 25-10-2004, 18:29   #2
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Nobody how knows??????
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Old 25-10-2004, 19:00   #3
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Default Re: wolf blood percetage,how is it calculated?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Meisel
I had a coversation whith someone ho said that you never can calculate how much wolfblood a wolfdog has.
Is this treu?
If somebody own a hybrid with unknown origin, then is a problem to calculate the wolblood percentage. But our dogs are not hybrids and by all is known full origin. Then is no problem to calculate it. The percentage of wolfblood is simply average from wolfblood percentage of parents. Its mean, if mother is GSD (0%) and father is wolf (100%), then puppies will have 50% of wolfblood.

And notice on the end. "Wolfblood" is only very theoretical number. This number dont say anything about the dog. Its on our pages only because many owners interesting about it. This number dont say anything about character, habits, exterior etc.
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Old 25-10-2004, 19:33   #4
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It is only 2 occations where one can measure exact percentages. The first occation is the pure dog (100% dog) and the pure wolf (100% wolf). Next occation is the offspring that will inherit 50% from both pure parents. That is F1 generation if the pures are founder-animals. So F1 generation is 50% wolf and 50% dog.

When breeding semiwolves (50%) with other semiwolves(50%) one never knows the exact distirbution of their grandparents (pure wolf and pure dog) genes. Although they will inherit half of their mothers and half of their fathers genes, they dont necessarily inherit 25% of each of their grandparents genes.

Breeding a 50% back to a pure (wolf or dog) will certainly give offspring that exceed 50% (wolf or dog), but you cannot say for sure it is 75%!

So in theory you should be able to breed back to a pure.
The percentages indicated on checkoslovakian wolfdogs pedigrees just gives us an idea of the wolf-blood inherited. It is not mathematically and genetically correct!

Take a look at all the pictures of the first generation wolfdogs. You can see wolf-types emerging after many generations of breeding under the 50% limit.
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Old 25-10-2004, 19:51   #5
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Please dont mixing genetic and percentage of wolfblood. As I wrote, the "wolfblood" is only the number, which dont says anything. "Wolfblood" is not a genetical, ethological or veteranian term. Its only a term, which calculate really theoretical and arithmetical number.
And again "Wolfblood" have nothing to do with character, habits a exterior of dog.
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Old 25-10-2004, 21:39   #6
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So the person i talked whith was right wen he said that you cannot calculate the wolfblood percentage on a mathematicale and genetical base.
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Old 25-10-2004, 21:46   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meisel
So the person i talked whith was right wen he said that you cannot calculate the wolfblood percentage on a mathematicale and genetical base.
You dont understand !!! You can calculate on mathematical base anything ("wolfblood" as well) but with genetic have it nothing to do.
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Old 25-10-2004, 21:59   #8
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Okay,but then the wolfblood percentage doesn,t say anything and is useless info.
Or am i wrong?
Because you said already it says nothing aboud the dog or its genetics.
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Old 25-10-2004, 22:20   #9
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Youre right Meisel, an estimated 30% wolfblood might have more wolfs genes than a 40% wolf. So percentages might be misleading. Number of generations back to the pure founders and selection matters a lot. Also the estimated percentage to some degree; it is more wolfblood in a 75% F2, than in a 10% F6. But exact numbers arent possible to measure.

2 recommended articles that explain this in detail:

http://www.wolfsanctuary.demon.nl/do.../xchances.html
and
http://www.nettally.com/mpalmer/wd_c...ercentage.html

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Old 25-10-2004, 22:40   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meisel
Okay,but then the wolfblood percentage doesn,t say anything and is useless info.
Or am i wrong?
Because you said already it says nothing aboud the dog or its genetics.
You're right. I repeat - "wolblood" is pure mathematic number. We put it on our pages only because many CsW owners want to know, how far is their dog from the origin parents.
Look e.g. here. Its a historical pictures of old CsW and you can see, that some hybrids from same litter of first generations looks like a shepards and some like a wolfdogs. And all have same % of "wolfblood". But "wolfblood" have nothing to do with gens. You can see as well today. Its many CsW, they have very "GSD look" and habits more, like a wolf and opposite. Simply say pure mathematic calculation have nothing to do with genetic, heritage end such things ...
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Old 16-01-2005, 17:40   #11
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hi.. those two links posted by fenris don't work now, so sorry if i just repeat things mentioned in those articles..

if a canine had, for simplicity, just 4 pairs of chromosomes, then (without crossing chromosomes over) the wolf-genes-percentage distribution in F2 generation would look like this:

(left column: wolfblood percentage; right column: number of puppies out of 256, because there are 2^8 = 256 ways to combine 4 halves of chromosome pairs)

000.0% ... 1
012.5% ... 8
025.0% ... 28
037.5% ... 56
050.0% ... 70
062.5% ... 56
075.0% ... 28
087.5% ... 8
100.0% ... 1

000.0% |
012.5% ||||||||
025.0% ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
037.5% |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||
050.0% |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||
062.5% |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||
075.0% ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
087.5% ||||||||
100.0% |

therefore there is just 27% chance (70/256) that an F2 puppy has exactly 50% wolfblood, but there is 71% chance (182/256) that an F2 puppy has between 37.5% and 62.5% wolfblood..

also, there is 64% chance (163/256) for "at least 50% wolfblood".. and 36% chance (93/256) for "at least 62.5% wolfblood", which equals to the chance for "at most 37.5% wolfblood"..

finally, there is still 0.4% chance that an F2 puppy is pure wolf and also 0.4% chance that an F2 puppy is pure dog.. and there is still chance for a today's real 25% x real 25% cross puppy to be a 50% half-wolf and then for 50% x 50% cross puppy to be a pure wolf..

so the dbase wolfblood value is just about the very peak of the probability..

charlie
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Old 16-01-2005, 19:59   #12
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Oblivion, your maths are great, but your genetics are way out...

Chromosomes can and will recombine, (that is why they are in pairs) that is why after very few generations, if you had an animal which was predicted to be at around 25% wolf content by the method described previously will really have a genetic content much closer to 25% than you would actually predict with your model (the distribution curve would really be much more narrow than you predict). I'm too lazy to do the actual maths, but the end result is that the number "predicted" is actually not too far away from what would be expected from random crosses.

Except of course... we don't breed wolfdogs from random crosses, but rather we positively select for traits we find desireable and negatively select for those which we find undesireable. (without counting the selection which we do not control, ie those pups which are never born because they are simply not viable) That is why as Pavel pointed out the number which we get from the calculation is basically just that... a number. Pretty but if you plan to predict how your dog is going to behave or look or ... well anything... it won't work. That number has virtually no predictive value. (Hope that this clarifies a few things)
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Old 17-01-2005, 01:31   #13
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Hi, all,
Quote:
Originally Posted by oblivion
those two links posted by fenris don't work now...
It seems I found the first one under this address :

http://www.furnation.com/lobo/mc/dog.../xchances.html

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Old 17-01-2005, 09:48   #14
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philippe: thanx for that link..

dharkwolf: but that (rather simple) math WAS about recombining chromosome pairs (though it was written as ch.s and half-ch.s, where ch.s were taken for ch. pairs) - but what it was without was crossing chromosomes over, which is not that often, just like mutations.. or do you mean cross-overs by that "can and will recombine"? am i wrong with its rareness?

the real distribution curve IS much more narrow (as you said; 45-55% wb is at 70% chance, 40-60% wb is at 95% chance, 35-65% wb is at 99% chance) because, in fact, canines have 39 chromosome pairs instead of just 4 used in my simplified example.. and more, i was talking solely about an F2 generation - in next generations things get more and more complicated..

anyway, my aim was to show probabilistic nature of the wolfblood value.. sharper is the peak, the less useless is the wolfblood value.. but i was definitely not talking about qualities of a "resulting" puppy.. there is an obvious difference among 25% wb canines, when different 25% of genes are wolfish..

and the second thing was, that the chance of 25% x 25% summing to 50% is not that small.. i was curious about its "exact" level, so to back it with some math again, here is how 25% F2 x 25% F2 will come out as an F3: (of course, this is not valid, or exact, for any other FX than F2 x F2, as there is probability distribution uniformity broken in later generations)

for a 25% wolfblood F2 canine, there are 24 different genotypes.. (with 4 ch. pairs)
forming pairs of two such canines makes:

2% of pairs that give: 25% wolfblood puppies at 100% chance (i.e. always)

24.5% of pairs that give: 12.5% wb at 25% ch, 25.0% wb at 50% ch, 37.5% wb at 25% ch;

73.5% of pairs that give: 00.0% wb at 6.25% ch, 12.5% wb at 25.0% ch, 25.0% wb at 37.5% ch, 37.5% wb at 25.0% ch, 50.0% wb at 6.25% ch;

this all gives (for, say, 196 puppies):

00.0% ... 9 ... (4.59%)
12.5% ... 48 ... (24.49%)
25.0% ... 82 ... (41.83%)
37.5% ... 48 ... (24.49%)
50.0% ... 9 ... (4.59%)

00.0% |||||||||
12.5% ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25.0% |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37.5% ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
50.0% |||||||||

almost 4.6% chance for 25% F2 x 25% F2 summing to 50% F3! ..or am i wrong again?

charlie
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Old 17-01-2005, 16:42   #15
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If we are talking about chromozomes, then CsW is 100% wolf as are other breeds I don't think that the wolf blood percentage has any except romantical value at all.. Percentage of "wolf genes" are better seen in the bonitation code - the less letters your dog has, the more genes he has which "belonged" to wolf.

By the way, Charlie, the recombination (crossovers) are going on at every meiosis, meaning during the production of every egg or sperm. Only most of our DNA is either junk or very similar (or both), so it is not seen very well. Chances, that a "wolf gene" gets on the "dog" chromosome by cross-over are quite slim, so well, yes, you can leave them out of general counting.
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Old 17-01-2005, 18:00   #16
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Considerable work is going on to try and differentiate wolf from dog DNA or at least the tiny part that differs and until such results are available there is going to be no accurate way of giving a percentage,at the moment it is all guess work and because of all the variables it is highly unlikely to be factual.
At the end of the day who cares anyway,surely it is the quality of the animal that counts,not its wolf content.
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Old 17-01-2005, 22:59   #17
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Just for clarity and so we are all talking about the same thing...
So yes, when I was talking about recombination I was talking about the crossing-over of chromosomes. This process will occur at least once per gene pair (you need a pair of genes for this) every generation.

For wolf genes and dog genes, this is a very slippery field, since as we all know… dogs and wolves share a close and common ancestry. Nonetheless some people have taken the time and effort to figure out that a wolf and dog genomes are identical to within 98.8 % that is that 0.2 % of the genome is different. That in itself is not terribly much, but enough that you could measure it if you found the right markers for it.

In oblivion’s example (an F2 generation) each chromosome will have undergone at least two recombination events already, so what does this mean?

Simply put recombination by crossing-over works like this:

Consider two genes like two ropes, a white one and a blue one. You put them side by side chop them up and switch them around. You end up with two ropes, both of which are blue and white. So if the blue rope represents a blue chromosome and the white rope the dog chromosome, which is the wolf chromosome and which is the dog chromosome? Neither. They are simply new (and different) chromosomes. The only variable is where in the chromosome does the recombination take place? This seems to be “random” and so very quickly the mathematical falls apart. It also means that in the analysis of wolfblood taking into account the chromosome number is really not significant, since all chromosomes undergo recombination.

It is really the number and position of recombination events since the first cross between wolf and dog which can give you an idea of how close the “wolfblood” percentage is to the “genetic” percentage. And even that is not particularly significant, as far as phenotypes go (ie the actually animal you live with) since not all genes are expressed in the same way in all animals (environmental factors are critical in gene expression).

So I guess you could say that I stand by my previous statement. The “wolfblood” content is a fine example of an essentially meaningless (but admittedly fun to have around) number.
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Old 18-01-2005, 07:38   #18
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saschia & dharkwolf: oh silly me, thanks for the lesson.. though i knew how crossing-over looks like, i didn't know it happens to ALL chromosomes at every pair splitting.. (maybe wrong books i based the math on: one (genetic) says "crossovers are rare and genes freely combine only when they are on different chromosomes", the other (non-genetic) says: "crossovers, not rare but not often, are the only way to freely combine genes at the same chromosome.." ..strange both..) ..so as randomness of cross-overs is hard to handle with simple math, expect no more distribution graphs from me.. ;o)

p.s.: i was not fighting for the wolfblood number idea, though it could look like i did.. (when i used wb percentage, i meant the real hard-to-know value, the number of "wolven" chromosomes; ..even if it's somewhat stupid to call them like that, as dogs are almost just "selected" wolves..)
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Old 19-01-2005, 08:04   #19
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well, i don't give up the math yet.. if randomness of cross-overs is uniform, then each chromosome an F2 canine will pass can vary from 0% to 100% in its "wolfish" origin.. "wolfblood" then would be a sum of 78 such values.. distribution of these sums is a form of a gaussian curve again.. in the case of only one crossing per chromosome, the math goes just like dice toss sums, with 78 dice for one toss..

when there are more crossings, the math is even easier - direct combinations of genes instead of chromosomes.. (er, one has to suppose uniform probability distribution over any number of crossings.. but if this probability is decreasing for higher number of crosses, then the resulting curve will be between one-crossing curve and uniform-multi-crossing curve)

without crossings, (N/78)% "wolfblood" is at 78!/(N!*(78-N)!*2^78) chance..; now, with uniform-multi-crossings, (N/G)% "wolfblood" is at G!/(N!*(G-N)!*2^G) chance, where G is total number of genes (if there's, say, 100 genes per chromosome, then G is 7800).. the G is quite high, so the distribution can be also handled as continuous.. with such fine distribution, a chance should be computed as a sum of chances for a range of "wolfblood", not for an exact value (such chance would be too small)..


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with one crossing only the situation is somewhat different - it cannot be computed as combinations.. to simplify the example (the last one, i promise ;o), i'll take just 2 ch. pairs.. that makes 4 values combined, each ranging from 0% to 100%.. it is not a continuous range (there are gene units), so to simplify it even more (and to be able to compute it), i will consider just 11 possible states(0%, 10%, 20%, ..., 100%) of a chromosome..

that makes 11^4 states = 14641, but just 41 different sums (0% to 100% by 2.5% steps) with this distribution:

"wolfblood": .......... chance:
00.0 % - 17.5 % ... 02.25 % ||
20.0 % - 30.0 % ... 10.04 % ||||||||||
32.5 % - 42.5 % ... 22.85 % |||||||||||||||||||||||
45.0 % - 55.0 % ... 29.72 % ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
57.5 % - 67.5 % ... 22.85 % |||||||||||||||||||||||
70.0 % - 80.0 % ... 10.04 % ||||||||||
82.5 % - 100.0 % ... 2.25 % ||

to get a smooth curve, the following figure is 40 states per each of 4 chromosomes, but it's shape is the same as with 11 states:

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and here is how it gets sharper for 78 chromosomes (11 states each):


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charlie
oblivion jest offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-01-2005, 23:58   #20
Dharkwolf
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I see you like this sort of thing...

Good guess with the 100 genes/chromosome. Even though the actual number of genes on a chromosome varies widely chromosomes are routinely chopped up into 100 segments for practical reasons (representing the % chance of any two genes on a given chromosome being separated after a recombination event) It would be interesting to see the distributions in the case of an F2 animal who had one wolf and three dogs as ancestors (ie wolfblood 25%) and then to see what would happen to a population of such animals if they evolved for oh say 20 or 30 generations. If you can get that model up, then you can start to do interesting things, such as calculating the chances that a given gene gets selected out of the gene pool if it is actively selected against or that a given gene is lost if it is not selected at all (you will need more info for those things, if you enjoy that sort of thing I can give you input)

Anyhow, thats just me dwaddling I suppose. Nice curves! (note how they are much sharper than your original ones though?)
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